The Battle for Yellow Begins

This beautifully designed Tour de France only gets better as the days go on. From the inclusion of some tough, punchy climbing in the first six-days of the race that allowed Julian Alaphilippe to show off his incredible talents and take the lead to general delirium in France, to the pair of races across the impossibly scenic Massif Central that provided us edge-of-your-seat drama, and finishing the opening run with the pair of post-rest day stages that eased the peloton into what begins today: the true battles to decide the Tour winner. This race has been an exceptional technical and popular triumph. 

The time trial is the heart of the Tour. Yes, the beautiful mountains capture our imaginations, the sight of the riders climbing into the sky through a screaming gauntlet of crazed fans is like nothing else in sport - no other athletes compete in such abusive conditions. However, in the past 10-years, almost 45% of the time differences between the final Yellow Jersey and the rest of the podium have been forged in the time trial, as opposed to the 30% differences coming out of the mountain races. The race of truth is just that. 

Today begins with a mystery worthy of Agatha Christy with the disappearance of reigning World Time Trial Champion Rohan Dennis just before what should have been a day of glory for the Australian: his lining up on the start line of the Tour de France wearing the rainbow stripes denoting champion. Dennis simply stopped in the middle of the race yesterday, left the Tour without a word to anyone and even now, almost 24-hours later, no one, least of all his team it would seem, has any idea of why. Every team has its issues. The all-conquering Jumbo-Visma has a gaffe-prone technical staff whose decisions cost Primož Roglič the Giro and George Bennet a possible podium. Trek-Segafredo, where to begin? No matter what was going on with the equipment or atmosphere of the team, Dennis has severely compromised his future. What team will now trust him enough to put seven-figures into his salary? He may just walk out on you and that’s not a risk worth taking. 

All eyes will be on defending Tour champion Geraint Thomas. He’s only ridden four TT’s this year with 9th his best placing at the Tour of the Basque Country in April, but no one is fooled. The multi-time world track racing champion is a master of fine-tuned pacing, the ability to “surf the road” finding every bit of speed available while holding the body to within a tiny percentage of its maximum effort without going over and into what we call the red zone. New gearing trends have helped this pacing with the use of massive 58 tooth chainrings on the specialized TT bicycles. The reason for these gears is in the fact that the gaps between gears are actually smaller in this way, allowing for even more precise selection. For example, the difference between a 58 x 17 and 16 is 1.8-meters. Between the more traditional 54 x 15 and 16: 2.2-meters. For a track specialist like Thomas, who was raised from childhood learning the art of precision pacing, these new trends are like gold, literally.

The “conflict of leadership” desperately pumped up by the press between Thomas and his eventual replacement Egan Bernal should be settled once and for all today – I’m sure it already has – but watch for an excellent performance from the Colombian who built his Paris-Nice win on an excellent 6th place in the Time Trial. He’s is a “complete racer” as we say in the game, able to roll the big gears as well as climb the mountains which is why he was so coveted by Ineos Director David Brailsford. From whom, thankfully, we’ve heard little to nothing this Tour. New Team Ineos CEO, the highly competent Fran Millar, sister of racing star David, seems to have muzzled the walking PR disaster, something I’ve been calling for over the years. 

What are the limits of Belgian Time Trial Champion (oh yes, forgot about that didn’t you?) Wout van Aert? He won the TT at the Critérium du Dauphiné on top of a sprint stage, a set of performances that set the cycling world right on its ear, continuing the run of form with his imperial performance this Tour. He should/could be tired by now, but everyone will be watching him with heightened levels of interest. Plus, as I always say, he’s just beautiful to watch. His teammate, Steven Kruijswijk, currently in 4th overall, can do a great TT too, and with the time checks and post-race reporting of the earlier-starting van Aert to guide him, Kruijswijk’s in the best position of his life to do something good. 

Big, big day for Nairo Quintana. Is he simply a great climber in the Colombian tradition? Or can he pull off a respectable time to keep himself in the running for this Tour. I’d spoken about the fantastic addition to the Movistar team of Director Max Sciandri during the Giro where he guided Ecuadorian Richard Carapaz to the win, but Max is not at the Tour and the team has gone right back to its traditional and completely predictable tactical approaches. So it’s all up to the road captain, Alejandro Valverde to keep Nairo in the game – notice that the Colombian is glued to Valverde wherever they go in the peloton.

The main victims of the wind battles to Albi, Thibaut Pino, Rigoberto Urán (wow, is that team having trouble, maybe it’s the karma from Jonathon Vaughter’s new book, all about EPO it would seem – don’t you think he, as team CEO, would want to finally, finally change the subject?) Jakob Fuglsang and Richie Porte absolutely must perform today if any of them harbor any hopes at all of a good placing in Paris. Desperate men all. Unlike my two sleepers, Emanuel Buchmann of Bora-Hansgrohe and Deceuninck’s Enric Mas, who was, recall, second in the Vuelta. They’ve both been invisible this Tour and will come out of the shadows today.

Last but certainly not least, Julian Alaphilippe. His ride today, in Yellow, in front of an adoring France and, I’m sure, a massive crowd, will be one for the history books. Today will be his 10th in Yellow - since July 8th – and he’ll turn himself inside an out to hold on for at least one more day. The French have not been this excited about a racer in decades and the emotions out on the road, the sheer magic and joy of the Tour de France, is something we can all share in today.