A Long Grind to Paris

I suppose that A.S.O., the organizers of this Tour de France, were expecting this extraordinarily hard “parcours” to gift us with non-stop attacking and drama, the sort we’ve seen over the years at the Vuelta a España (Tour of Spain). But the Tour is a different animal than the end-of-season Vuelta, where vast differences in fatigue, motivation and form between the riders allow the explosive action that have made the Spanish tour a such favorite among racing connoisseurs. All the Tour riders are fresh – after the long Covid break – highly motivated, as they always are at the greatest race in the world, and everyone is in peak condition. They are all afraid as well, which is giving us the hard yet calculated-to-the-millimeter racing we’ve been seeing.

Today’s sprint finish in Lavaur, a town in the beautiful Tarn region of southern France considered as the French “Tuscany”, will complete the first week of racing. The racers will have covered 1,242 kilometers (776-miles) with four Category 1 climbs, two of them summit finishes, and one Cat 2 for the hilliest start to the Tour in over 40-years. In total, the race includes 29 categorized climbs (2, 1 and HC), six more than in 2017 for example, with seven climbs in the Massif Central, five over this weekend’s foray into the Pyrenees, and, which is why the waiting attitude of the peloton makes sense, a whopping 13 climbs in the final Alpine week. There are 8000 more meters (26,000’) of total climbing this year than last. As I said yesterday, stupid hard.

The teams with podium designs need to marshal their forces, keep their powder dry for that last week when the true fatigue sets in, and can ill afford using those soldiers up in any action that doesn’t directly benefit their ultimate goals. You saw that yesterday on the final climb to the summit finish of Mount Aigoual – where oh where did they find that most desolate place? – when the Ineos went to the front to take control of the peloton and actually lost time on the breakaway such was their conservative approach. Jumbo-Visma, in the power position with a pair of stage wins already in the pocket and their race favorite Primož Roglič sitting pretty within striking distance of Yellow yet having none of its responsibilities, are content to wait while enjoying the distress their rise has given to David Brailsford’s team. Everyone else with podium ambitions are playing follow the leader, all waiting for that final, inhumane week to sort out the race.

Ineos, born Team Sky, have never been in this submissive position, imperial since their Grand Tour reign began with Bradly Wiggins eight-years ago. Their famed arrogant dominance has been knocked down by the Dutch team and it is interesting to see how they are trying to adapt to this new and lower status. They made attempts at assertion over the last two days, neither of which proved effective. Their leader, last year’s winner Egan Bernal, is clearly off pace and for me, simply does not have that explosive uphill speed that you see in Roglič and others. His is a diesel motor and the team is hoping that his health (he may have a back issue) and the grinding nature of this race, combined with the above 2000-meter climbs of the last week where his Colombian lungs will feel at home, will make the difference. Their second in command Ecuadorian Richard Carapaz has seemed off too, currently wallowing down in 20th, although only :41 behind the Yellow Jersey, Adam Yates, a racer who doesn’t seem to quite know what to do with his leader position. Defend at all costs? Treat it as the unexpected gift it was and still focus on stage wins? We’ll know more by Sunday night after the Pyrenees but look for more steady grinding, a slow erosion of the strength of the peloton rather than explosive action.

The sentiment seem to be that Julian Alaphilippe is less than he was last year, that this course is too hard for him and that he would have lost that Yellow Jersey in the Pyrenees anyway. I’m not so sure about that. I’ve been hearing that while less explosive than before, that he’s developed much more depth, more of the diesel motor that is needed for deep, hard racing as we’ve been seeing. Losing the jersey in fact worked out for him, as his team can concentrate on getting Sam Bennet to Paris in Green, freeing Alaphilippe to freelance around the peloton and to concentrate on his inevitable attempt to become a true Tour contender over the next couple of years. It’s foolish to try and count out a great racer like that. He is consistent in his ability to surprise and astound and has a complete awareness of great story lines and his place in them. 

Finally, a word on Neilson Powless, the first Native American to race the Tour de France, the 24-year old a member of the Oneida Nation. His has been a phenomenal rise through the ranks, winning the Best Young Rider at the 2016 Tour of California when only 20, (9th overall) and now making his name known at the Tour. Powless got himself into the one great breakaway of this Tour so far, confronting the finale of the stage in the royal company of Olympic Champion Greg Van Avermaet, Kazhakh National Champion Alexey Lutsenko, and former Spanish Pro Champ Jeśus Herrada (four other top strongmen having been blown out the break). Unfortunately, he was badly coached by his EF Education team on that golden occasion, attacking the break not once but twice on the final climb yet still finishing 4th on the day.  Young riders are of course supposed to be aggressive, to push their boundaries whenever possible to learn who and what they are. But not at the end of a Tour de France stage in the company of three of the most hardened veterans in the business. He should have sat still, calmed his ardors and waited for Lutsenko, who everyone knew was going to attack - he’s an Astana rider for goodness sake - to make his move. Powless, as a young unknown, would have been perfectly within his rights to sit on that break and force the older men to carry him to the finish. These opportunities come around once in a blue moon, and, while delighted at the emergence of a new American star, I’m a bit heartbroken for his missed opportunity.