The Pyrenees Begin

Stage 4 into the Paul Armagnac auto racing circuit was a Tour experiment that should not be repeated. The peloton arrived at the narrow entrance to the circuit completely fresh and stressed after one of the slowest, most boring stages imaginable, and the wide, sweeping turns of the circuit insured the crossing of wheels as the excited lead-out trains swept left, then right then left again. The slow stage was not the fault of the riders, the cakewalk was a logical result of having those two brutal opening stages, ones that have already given us an outline of the final GC in Paris. The chances of an Alaphilippe type to light up the race and create interesting GC scenarios are already over, the flatness of the two transitional stages offering no real attacking opportunities, so the game was: wait for the sprint.

Jasper Philipsen, the winner of Stages 3 & 4, is truly fast which is a relatively new development in his career. The Belgian, from the same town as Tom Boonen, began as a pure classics rider, working on his depth and power more than pure speed. He was 6th in the Junior World Time Trial Championships, Points winner at the Baby Giro, winner also of Paris-Tours Espoirs before, in his last year of U-23, deciding that he wanted to win more races. One day he simply became a sprinter, a good decision I’m sure we all agree. Don’t forget, he was second at Paris-Roubaix this year, so the power and depth are still there making him the major Green Jersey threat for years to come. Perhaps consider him as the new Erik Zabel, capable of winning Points Jerseys, Classics, and stages. He and Alpecin-Deceuninck teammate Mathieu van der Poel are a most formidable combination, able to switch roles back and forth with ease.

The real mountains begin today, and as is now the norm, the race will explode into action from the gun as the riders who’ve already lost chunks of time in the Basque Country hope for a bit of leeway from the controlling Jumo-Visma and UAE teams. The demoralized Movistar’s must perform in their cherished Pyrenees, their best placed rider, for example, Alex Aranburu is wallowing in 41st overall, 6’01” down, and should certainly be on the attack. There are still 26 riders within 1’41” of Yellow, so most will be clamped down however, I’m most curious about the attitude towards 4th placed Victor Lefay. Will he be controlled or not? It was only Lefay, Pogačar and Vingegaard together at the top of the Côte de Pike on Stage 1, so he may have already given the game away. But do the top riders consider him a true threat, one worth expending energy on? He will certainly be on the move today, it’s a great scenario for him, a rare moment in life where something extraordinary could happen. I’ll be watching the enigmatic Frenchman.